(Correspondent: Zhang Wei) On October 28th, Dr. Sun Chengjiu from Nankai Institute of Economics gave a talk entitled” Solar Eclipses, Political Legitimacy, and Economic Performance in Historical China” in NKIE (Nankai Institute of Economics) Bi-weekly Academic Seminar. Prof. Zhang Zhiqiang and Prof. Guan Yongqiang were invited as commentators.

Dr. Sun first elaborated the idea of political legitimacy and put forward three reasons that solar eclipses were selected as indicators for economic shocks. Using historical data spanning for more than 2000 years, he documented that when total solar eclipses occurred, climate shocks had a greater negative impact on economic performance. The key mechanism appears to be that total eclipses significantly intensified the effect of climate shocks on civil conflict. Together, his findings highlighted the importance of political legitimacy during periods of economic downturn.